FINANCIAL FOREX INVESTMENT

Trading Forex – Renminbi

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China is making business headlines everywhere we look. It has the largest population, the fastest growing economy, the biggest export/import imbalance, most imposing foreign reserves. And, by many accounts, the most undervalued currency, which is, in part, the reason behind Chinese meteoric rise as on of world’s dominant markets.

There is some confusion as to the correct name of Chinese currency. There seem to be two different names used interchangeably. One is the Yuan, while the other is Renminbi. Yuan is the measure of account, while Renminbi (RMB) is the correct name of the currency, meaning "people’s money". Even in forex circles there is no conformity, as the term Chinese Yaun (CNY), is still commonly used. Little wonder just about everybody is confused.

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This currency is not a freely "floating" one. Since 1997 until 2005, China maintained a peg of 8.27 to a dollar. In eyes of many economists and politicians, that was a chief reason for Chinese staggering trade imbalance, estimated to be over 1 Trillion dollars. The People’s Bank of China was under enormous international pressure to let Renminbi float. In 2005 the bank moved the peg to 8.11 USD.

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Eventually People’s Bank of China (PBC) moved to a managed floating exchange rate based on market supply and demand with reference to a basket of foreign currencies. The daily trading price of the U.S. dollar against the RMB in the inter-bank foreign exchange market would be allowed to float within a narrow band of 0.3% around the central parity published by the People’s Bank of China (PBC); in a later announcement published on May 18, 2007, the band was extended to 0.5%.[19] The PRC has stated that the basket is dominated by the U.S. Dollar, Euro, Japanese yen and South Korean Won, with a smaller proportion made up of the British Pound, Thai Bath, Russian Ruble, Australian Dollar, Canadian Dollar and Singapore Dollar.

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As of this writing (late July 2008), RMB is quoted at 6.82 USD. This represents a 21% appreciation since the removal of peg. Large move in currency terms. Despite this fact, many studies indicate that RMB is still severely undervalued, and is expected to rise in value over coming months and years, against the entire basket of tracking currencies.

How can a trader take advantage of this appreciation? There is number of possibilities. The easiest is to enter Chinese equities market through any ETF exposed to China. There are many of them, with varied level of both exposure and play. While this approach is the simplest one, it is also the least direct one when pure currency movement is sought. Not the best option for forex trader.

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Another financial vehicle to consider is a Market Vector Currency Exchange-Traded Note, a form of ETF. Morgan Stanley issued Chinese Renminbi/USD ETN, which trades under the ticker symbol CNY. This instrument is supposed to shadow the currency fluctuation and trade like a stock. It can be purchased through any stock broker. Just like all of this type of products, it lacks the the advantages of spot forex market, namely 24 hour trading and scalable leverage.

Most appealing option to a forex trader is to trade Renminbi in a spot market. Fortunately, this possibility exists, but is offered by very few brokers. You might have to look around a little. There are some shortcomings to this option. The spread is very wide, making day trading prohibitively expensive, to the point of not being practical. Some periods during trading day lack liquidity, making it very difficult to get in or out of the market. If your intention is to take advantage of long term expected appreciation, you can easily use this option for "buy and hold".

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General long term predictions for Renminbi are calling for significant gain against the earlier mentioned basket of currencies. While it might very likely be true, one musn’t forget that China is still a developing country by western standards. Her financial markets will go through many peaks and valleys, some of which will surely be prolonged. Renminbi is no exception and is certain to experience large corrections.

By: Mike P. Kulej

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Mike P. Kulej is a Chief Forex Strategist for Spectrum Forex LLC. He specializes in mechanical trading systems as explained on www.spectrumforex.com . Spectrum Forex LLC offers numerous services to individual traders. He also publishes trading blog www.fxmadness.com . With questions and comments e-mail him at kulej@spectrumforex.com.